No Guardiola. No Fear. Can Carrick Make Derby History at Old Trafford?
Say it slowly, because it still feels strange: for the first time in over ten years, Pep Guardiola will not be standing in that away technical area at Old Trafford. Enzo Maresca will be. And whatever you think about how we got here, one thing is certain — this derby just got a lot more interesting.
United fans have spent a decade watching Guardiola pick their pockets on derby day. Now there's a new man in the away dugout, a perfect record to defend, and a Manchester United side that has been thrilling and terrifying its own supporters in equal measure. This one has everything.
The Opta supercomputer likes City here, sure. But look at those numbers again — that's not a coin flip going one way, that's a genuine contest. And once you start digging into how both teams have actually played this season, "City favourites" starts to feel like the least interesting part of the story.
City Are Winning. City Are Not Convincing.
Three from three in the league. A 2-0 win at Porto to open the Champions League. On paper, Maresca's start couldn't have gone much better. In reality? City have been living dangerously.
Their 1-0 win over Coventry last weekend should have been comfortable. It wasn't. Taiwo Awoniyi missed a gilt-edged chance early on, Jack Rudoni forced a save out of Gianluigi Donnarumma from close range, and Ellis Simms was denied late by the goalkeeper's reflexes rather than any City defending. This is a newly-promoted side we're talking about.
This isn't a coincidence. Across all competitions this season, City have conceded three or more "big chances" — the kind of opportunities you'd normally expect a team to score — in three of their five matches. Even Porto, who didn't manage a single shot on target, kept worrying them, mostly getting caught offside instead of finishing the job. The pattern is clear: City are winning games while giving opponents openings they shouldn't be giving up.
Why does that matter on Sunday specifically? Because United, heading into this weekend, rank top of the entire Premier League for shots (68) and for expected goals (7.3) through three matchdays. If City keep leaking half-chances the way they have been, United's front line is exactly the kind of attack built to punish it.
United's Problem Isn't Scoring. It's Everything Else.
Here's the part that should worry Old Trafford more than anything City can throw at them: United have conceded twice in every single one of their three Premier League games this season. Not once. Not twice. All three.
United have only ever started a league campaign by conceding multiple goals in four straight matches on three occasions in their entire history — 1926-27, 1930-31, and 1969-70. Concede twice against City on Sunday, and this fragile start joins that unwanted list.
And yet, somehow, this United team keeps winning. Since Michael Carrick returned for his second spell in charge back in January, they've won nine of their ten home league games, losing just once — and they've scored at least twice in every single victory. They've won their last three home games despite conceding twice in each of them. It's chaos. It's also working.
Carrick's first game back in the United dugout? At home, against City. Goals from Bryan Mbeumo and Patrick Dorgu sealed a 2-0 win that lifted the whole club. Win again on Sunday, and Carrick becomes only the third United manager in the club's history to win his first two league games against City — joining names from 1895 and 1913. That's not a stat. That's history sitting right there, waiting.
There's an even bigger prize hiding in that same stat line. United have not beaten City in back-to-back home league fixtures since the Ferguson era, when they managed three in a row between 2008-09 and 2010-11. A win on Sunday, following last season's home victory, would end a drought that's outlasted three different United managers.
The Man Who Never Misses Against United
Let's talk about the problem United can't tactic their way out of: Erling Haaland.
Only Mohamed Salah (13) and Alan Shearer (10) have scored more Premier League goals against United than Haaland has in less than half as many games. He scored a hat-trick the first time he ever faced them, back in 2022, and he's barely let up since. He was on the scoresheet in City's last league outing and then helped himself to a brace against Porto in midweek. He is, in every sense, a man for the occasion.
There's one small crumb of comfort buried in there for United: only two of Haaland's derby goals have actually come at Old Trafford, in three visits. But here's the sting in the tail — City have never, not once, failed to beat United in a match where Haaland has scored against them. Keep him quiet, and United's chances jump. Don't, and history says the conversation is basically over.
Rashford's Redemption Arc Has a Familiar Villain
We wrote about Marcus Rashford's tentative return to Old Trafford a few weeks back, and the question then was whether the talent would translate back into end product. Against City, of all opponents, the early signs are promising.
Rashford has scored in his last two Premier League appearances against City — once for United in March 2024, once for Aston Villa in April 2025. That's as many goals as he managed in his previous nine meetings with them combined. Sunday will be his 22nd Manchester derby, making City the opponent he's faced most often as a United player. Among all his Premier League rivals, only Leicester (8) and Liverpool (7) have suffered more from him than City's six.
Two Kids Fighting for England's Number Six Shirt
Strip away the headline names, and this derby doubles as an audition for two of England's most talked-about young midfielders.
Elliot Anderson had the summer of his life — a starring role as England finished third at the World Cup, followed by a big-money move to City, where he's already taken over the midfield keys from the departed Rodri. Kobbie Mainoo, meanwhile, was the only outfield player in England's World Cup squad who didn't play a single minute, a decision that left plenty of United fans scratching their heads.
| Metric (90+ mins, 2026-27) | Kobbie Mainoo | Elliot Anderson |
|---|---|---|
| Duel success rate | 68.2% (6th among midfielders) | — |
| Possession regains per 90 | 10.1 (2nd among midfielders) | — |
| Tackle attempts per 90 | — | 3.1 (7th among midfielders) |
| Passes per 90 | — | 121.4 (1st among midfielders) |
| Line-breaking passes | — | 76 (1st among midfielders) |
Mainoo hasn't sulked about being left out of the World Cup picture. He's just gone and had arguably the best start of his career instead — tougher in the tackle, harder to dispossess, seemingly everywhere. He then bossed United's Champions League win over Sabah on Thursday, racking up more touches and passes than anyone else on the pitch before he was even substituted.
Anderson isn't just along for the ride at City, either. He leads every midfielder in the league for passes per 90, progressive carries, and line-breaking passes — the kind of numbers you'd expect from someone stepping directly into Rodri's old job. This one is personal, and it's happening right in the middle of the pitch.
Fernandes vs Cherki: Who Actually Decides This?
Bruno Fernandes and Rayan Cherki were the two standout creators in the Premier League last season. Fernandes' raw totals were bigger, simply because he played far more minutes, but the per-90 picture was much closer — and on expected assists specifically, Cherki actually edged him, 0.44 to 0.36.
This season, Cherki has been unplayable in flashes: his 0.69 xA per 90 is the best of any player with 90+ minutes played in the league, he's created 5.1 chances per 90, and he's already scored twice against Crystal Palace and assisted twice against Bournemouth. He walks into Old Trafford in red-hot form.
Fernandes, meanwhile, looks like a different type of threat this season. With Tielemans and Mainoo now sharing more of the creative load, he's taking 5.0 shots per 90 — double his rate from last season. He's already scored four times in all competitions, headlined by a hat-trick and an assist against Ipswich. He may be creating slightly less, but he's arguably more dangerous in front of goal than at any point in years.
United's Real Weakness: The Left Side
If City are going to attack anywhere specific on Sunday, the pattern points straight at United's left flank. Of the four non-set-piece goals United have conceded in the league this season, two have come down that side — Abdul Fatawu skinned Luke Shaw for Ipswich's opener, and against Everton, Shaw tucked in too narrow and was late to close down Tyrique George for the equaliser.
City are crossing more in open play this season (13.7 per game) than in any of their previous three campaigns, and their attacking approach leaves them spending just 9% of their time in a low block — the lowest of any Premier League side. Add in United's own tendency to attack in behind (142 such runs this season, second only to Brighton, with Bryan Mbeumo's 49 the most of any player in the league), and this should be a match with space at both ends, not a cagey stalemate.
There's a milestone wrapped up in all this, too. Shaw's next United appearance will be his 300th for the club, and he's currently on a run of 41 consecutive Premier League starts — a streak only bettered in recent years by Harry Maguire's 72-game run between 2019 and 2021. He was rested against Sabah purely to manage a cramp issue, not an injury, so expect him back for the big one. His attacking numbers are actually up too — more crosses, more chances created than in years — so this isn't simply a case of a struggling full-back. It's a genuinely two-way battle down that flank.
So, Who Actually Wins This?
Strip away the emotion and here's the honest picture: City have been winning without convincing, United have been entertaining without defending, and the numbers say this is close enough that either result would make total sense.
What makes it fascinating is the history stacked on the touchline. Maresca is chasing a perfect start that only two of his nine predecessors as City boss managed to pull off in this exact fixture. Carrick is chasing something no United manager has done since Ferguson left the building. Somebody's streak breaks on Sunday. That's the derby.
Data: United's home-derby win drought since Ferguson (2008-09 to 2010-11) vs Maresca's perfect start as City boss vs Carrick's 2-0 first game back against City
Visual concept: A split "tale of two touchlines" graphic — red timeline (United) on one side, sky blue (City) on the other, converging at "Sunday, Old Trafford"
Placement: Top of the "So, Who Actually Wins This?" section